Thursday, 5 June 2025

Operation Spider's Web - Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian airfields

 




The more you read about this operation the more incredible it appears -  117 drones transported -by duped Russian drivers in special containers - to within close proximity to four widely dispersed Russian long-range aviation bases and then commanded - via the Soviet's own telecoms networks -  to go and seek out some of the Russian strategic bomber force, potentially wiping out up a third of it. A master-stroke of asymmetric warfare. According to Ukraine's SBU security service the 01 June 25 drone attacks on four of Russia's long-range aviation hit :

34% of strategic carriers of cruise missiles at the main airfields of the Russian Federation .

34% hit claim by Ukraine= ~44–48 aircraft damaged or destroyed. 

Estimated total Russian strategic bomber fleet: ~130–140 cruise missile-capable bombers.
 
Tu-95MS: ~50–60 total (22–27 active; some reports mention 45 older variants).

Tu-160: Fewer than 20 operational.

Tu-22M3: ~60 in service (40 recently observed at Olenya airbase).




Russian Bomber Losses from Ukrainian Strikes

Tu-95MS Strategic Bombers
Dec 2022 (Engels-2): At least 1 damaged
Apr 2024 (Engels-2): 3 bombers hit
Jun 2025 (Operation “Spider’s Web”): Included among 40+ aircraft hit (exact number unspecified)
Minimum confirmed: 5 x Tu-95M

Tu-22M3 Strategic Bombers
Dec 2022 (Dyagilevo): At least 1 damaged
Aug 2023 (Soltsy): 1 destroyed
Jun 2025 (Operation “Spider’s Web”): Included among 40+ aircraft hit (exact number unspecified)
Minimum confirmed: 2 x Tu-22M3





Many of the Tupolevs in the drone footage appear to have literally piles of rubber tyres distributed across their upper surfaces. Is this to tell US satellites they're unserviceable or similar?  If so, then the Ukranians have wasted their time on a few of these decrepit airframes.  Or do they disrupt radio waves or similar? 

Edit - it seems that the tyres are to break up the outline of the aircraft so that the drone can not recognise it as a target.....but then that doesn't make sense..these bases were 1000s of kms from Ukraine. They weren't expecting to be attacked by drones..






An assessment of  the losses as seen in the video footage was posted by Tom Cooper on his ACIG.INFO board

- 8 Tu-95MS, nearly all FMC-examples (or 'fully mission capable'). Including RF-94132/Voronezh, RF-94127/Vorkuta, RF-94257/Chelyabinsk (one of last two Tu-95MS' manufactured)... (two 'probables' are RF-94117/Izborsk, and RF-94120/Kozelsk). At least three loaded with Kh-101s (AFAIK, the Russians run out of Kh-555s).

- 13 Tu-22M-3: I would say: 2-3 haven't been flown in some time, but the rest is 'legitimate'.

- both of the A-50s which are old, stored airframes. This was a waste of effort.

Still, now it can be said that this is nearly '100% of FMC-part' of the Tu-95MS-fleet, and something like 50% of all the Tu-22M-3s 'still operational as of the last two years' (i.e. well beyond the '30% of the Russian bomber fleet', originally claimed by the SBU).

...and the destruction of (at least) some 6-12 Kh-101s is also 'great news', because the Russians have major problems just with trying to make these. So, this attack blew up 'quite a stock': something like 'half a month of air strikes on Ukraine'. 

summary above by Tom Cooper




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